REVUE : "Lessons from a Conflict Escalation Prediction Competition", International Interactions (vol. 48, n°4, 2022)

Jeffrey PICKERING

The latest issue of International Interactions (vol. 48, n°4, 2022) is out with a special issue on "Lessons from a Conflict Escalation Prediction Competition".

Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco & Michael Colaresi, Lessons from an escalation prediction competition

Felix Ettensperger, Forecasting conflict using a diverse machine-learning ensemble: Ensemble averaging with multiple tree-based algorithms and variance promoting data configurations

Hannes Mueller & Christopher Rauh, Using past violence and current news to predict changes in violence

David Randahl & Johan Vegelius, Predicting escalating and de-escalating violence in Africa using Markov models

Iris Malone, Recurrent neural networks for conflict forecasting

Thomas Chadefaux, A shape-based approach to conflict forecasting

Fulvio Attinà, Marcello Carammia & Stefano M. Iacus, Forecasting change in conflict fatalities with dynamic elastic net

Christian Oswald & Daniel Ohrenhofer, Click, click boom: Using Wikipedia data to predict changes in battle-related deaths

Konstantin Bätz, Ann-Cathrin Klöckner & Gerald Schneider, Challenging the status quo: Predicting violence with sparse decision-making data

Vito D’Orazio & Yu Lin, Forecasting conflict in Africa with automated machine learning systems

Benjamin J. Radford, High resolution conflict forecasting with spatial convolutions and long short-term memory

Andreas Lindholm, Johannes Hendriks, Adrian Wills & Thomas B. Schön, Predicting political violence using a state-space model

Cornelius Fritz, Marius Mehrl, Paul W. Thurner & Göran Kauermann, The role of governmental weapons procurements in forecasting monthly fatalities in intrastate conflicts: A semiparametric hierarchical hurdle model

Patrick T. Brandt, Vito D’Orazio, Latifur Khan, Yi-Fan Li, Javier Osorio & Marcus Sianan, Conflict forecasting with event data and spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks

Lisa Hultman, Maxine Leis & Desirée Nilsson, Employing local peacekeeping data to forecast changes in violence

Jonas Vestby, Jürgen Brandsch, Vilde Bergstad Larsen, Peder Landsverk & Andreas Forø Tollefsen, Predicting (de-)escalation of sub-national violence using gradient boosting: Does it work?

Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Michael Colaresi, Remco Bastiaan Jansen, Adeline Lo, Gregor Reisch & Nils B. Weidmann, United they stand: Findings from an escalation prediction competition