International law can strengthen global security, making the world safer for present and future generations. The 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is part of this vision. Twenty-five years ago, on 8 July 1996, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued an advisory opinion on the legality of the use of nuclear weapons, stating that there was no legal norm explicitly prohibiting the possession or even the use of such weapons. The then president of the ICJ, Mohammed Bedjaoui, declared on that occasion that “at no time did the Court lose sight of the fact that nuclear weapons constitute a potential means of destruction of all mankind. (…) But the Court could obviously not go beyond what the law says. It could not say what the law does not say”. With the entry into force of the TPNW on 22 January 2021, these weapons have now been made illegal under international law.
Today, the world’s nuclear arsenal has decreased significantly from its peak reached in 1986 with a total of 69,368 warheads. The nine nuclear-armed States – United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea – together possessed an estimated 13,080 nuclear weapons at the beginning of 2021. However, not only will this decrease in nuclear weapons make no difference to civilians in the event of a nuclear war, but more nuclear warheads have been deployed with operational forces.
The serious environmental consequences of a massive exchange of nuclear weapons have been addressed in various studies by meteorologists and other experts. In 2013, the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW) released a report on the global impact of a limited nuclear war on agriculture, food supplies and human nutrition, demonstrating that the number of people threatened by nuclear-war induced starvation would be well over 2 billion.
At any time, a detonation of one or more nuclear weapons can occur, intentionally or accidentally. At any time, the most advanced nuclear States (United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China) have nuclear forces circulating under the oceans, ready to launch, on the orders of their respective leaders, a salvo of nuclear missiles, whose current hight destructive power forbids any comparison with that which destroyed the city of Hiroshima in 1945.
This permanent threat of nuclear retaliation for a proscribed behaviour is the consequence of what is known as nuclear deterrence, the military strategy of constantly menacing heads of State and their populations with mass extermination. However, this theory has flaws, not least the fact that it encourages nuclear proliferation. In this sense, according to a report entitled “Joint Nuclear Operations”, completed in April 2020 but released in early July 2021 by the Pentagon, the possibility of nuclear weapons being used in a regional or global conflict has increased over the past decade.
In order to highlight the flaws in the nuclear deterrence policy, the so-called “Humanitarian Initiative” was launched in 2010 at the eighth review conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This series of conferences exploring the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons, led by a handful of States and supported by a broad civil society coalition (International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons - ICAN), was the impetus for the adoption of the TPNW.
The importance of this treaty lies in the fact that it is the first instrument to ban nuclear weapons completely, as specified in Article 1, where various forms of prohibitions are formulated, including the use, threat of use, development, testing, production, manufacturing, acquisition, possession or stockpiling, as well as assisting, encouraging or inducing anyone, in any way, to engage in a prohibited activity. All these prohibitions reinforce and complement other control and disarmament treaties (1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone treaties).
The TPNW is also the first instrument of international law to help mitigate the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of using and testing nuclear weapons, especially by requiring States to assist victims of nuclear testing and use and clearing contaminated areas.
Although the TPNW is currently rejected by all nuclear weapon States and States supporting the policy of nuclear deterrence, this treaty now sets new legal standards that make it clear that nuclear weapons are not only immoral but illegal. It stigmatises such weapons and creates momentum for a wider ratification and a paradigm shift for the countries that possess them.
As shown in our book Nuclear Weapons and International Law: Visions of a Plural World published in April 2021, the current context – marked both by the entry into force of the TPNW and by the continued costly modernisation and renewal of nuclear arsenals – reveals how many hopes and challenges there are in a plural world. Depending on their respective nuclear arsenals, geographical location, development level, or peace and security levels, States have different perceptions of nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, it will always be the population who will suffer the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of these weapons.
On 8 July 1996, the ICJ Advisory Opinion highlighted the importance of achieving a ban. Two decades later, on 7 July 2017, the TPNW was adopted by a majority of 122 United Nations Member States. Currently, it has received 86 signatures and 54 ratifications.
The TPNW is the missing link wished by President Bedjaoui. It cannot be ignored on the international scene, especially by democratic regimes, as a cardinal achievement towards the ultimate goal of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. It is time for States to act in the direction of History by ratifying this treaty, to ensure its universalisation and thus rid the world of the most destructive weapons ever conceived.
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